Updated on Monday 01 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 103776 (+967) 1770165 (+24146) 416461 (+10015) 1249928 (+13164)
United Kingdom 38458 (+215) 274219 (+1612) 1187 (+15) 234574 (+1382)
Italy 33340 (+111) 232664 (+416) 155633 (+2789) 43691 (-2484)
Brazil 28834 (+956) 498440 (+33274) 200892 (+11416) 268714 (+20902)
France 28774 (+57) 188752 (+1829) 68386 (+465) 91592 (+1307)
Spain 27125 (+4) 239228 (+664) 150376 (+0) 61727 (+660)
Mexico 9779 (+364) 87512 (+2885) 61247 (+2244) 16486 (+277)
Belgium 9453 (+23) 58186 (+125) 15769 (+87) 32964 (+15)
Germany 8530 (+26) 183189 (+267) 164908 (+663) 9751 (-422)
Iran 7734 (+57) 148950 (+2282) 116827 (+1896) 24389 (+329)
Canada 7159 (+96) 91681 (+772) 48517 (+612) 36005 (+64)
Netherlands 5970 (+20) 46460 (+132) 178 (+0) 40312 (+112)
India 5185 (+205) 181827 (+8336) 86936 (+4309) 89706 (+3822)
China 4638 (+0) 84128 (+5) 79386 (+4) 104 (+1)
Russia 4555 (+181) 396575 (+8952) 167469 (+8212) 224551 (+559)
Turkey 4515 (+26) 163103 (+983) 126984 (+1021) 31604 (-64)
Sweden 4395 (+45) 37113 (+637) 4971 (+0) 27747 (+592)
Peru 4371 (+272) 155671 (+13892) 66447 (+3656) 84853 (+9964)
Ecuador 3334 (+0) 38571 (+0) 19190 (+0) 16047 (+0)
Switzerland 1919 (+0) 30845 (+17) 28400 (+100) 526 (-83)
Ireland 1651 (+6) 24929 (+53) 22089 (+0) 1189 (+47)
Indonesia 1573 (+53) 25773 (+557) 7015 (+523) 17185 (-19)
Portugal 1396 (+13) 32203 (+257) 19186 (+275) 11621 (-31)
Pakistan 1395 (+78) 66457 (+2429) 24131 (+1826) 40931 (+525)
Romania 1259 (+11) 19133 (+151) 13046 (+217) 4828 (-77)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 364488 (+4259) 5974889 (+134737) 2485307 (+71154)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 361905 ( +2492) 5959969 ( +81207) 2537307 ( +64132)
Mon 01 June 2020 364248 ( +2343) 6038564 ( +78595) 2600671 ( +63364)
Tue 02 June 2020 366446 ( +2198) 6114461 ( +75896) 2663060 ( +62389)
Wed 03 June 2020 368504 ( +2059) 6187592 ( +73132) 2724280 ( +61220)
Thu 04 June 2020 370430 ( +1925) 6257913 ( +70320) 2784151 ( +59871)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84128 (+5) 79386 (+4)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84071 ( +0) 78310 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84071 ( +0) 78310 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84071 ( +0) 78310 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84071 ( +0) 78310 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84072 ( +0) 78310 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 27125 (+4) 239228 (+664) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 27787 ( +13) 234426 ( +99) 156139 ( +599)
Mon 01 June 2020 27798 ( +11) 234515 ( +89) 156705 ( +566)
Tue 02 June 2020 27808 ( +10) 234596 ( +80) 157239 ( +534)
Wed 03 June 2020 27817 ( +9) 234668 ( +72) 157743 ( +504)
Thu 04 June 2020 27825 ( +8) 234733 ( +65) 158219 ( +476)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 33340 (+111) 232664 (+416) 155633 (+2789)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 33003 ( +39) 230247 ( +162) 153654 ( +1551)
Mon 01 June 2020 33038 ( +36) 230395 ( +148) 155132 ( +1478)
Tue 02 June 2020 33071 ( +33) 230530 ( +135) 156538 ( +1407)
Wed 03 June 2020 33101 ( +30) 230653 ( +123) 157876 ( +1338)
Thu 04 June 2020 33128 ( +27) 230765 ( +112) 159147 ( +1271)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 38458 (+215) 274219 (+1612) 1187 (+15)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 37981 ( +115) 266099 ( +849) 1504 ( +40)
Mon 01 June 2020 38086 ( +105) 266881 ( +782) 1545 ( +41)
Tue 02 June 2020 38181 ( +95) 267602 ( +721) 1587 ( +42)
Wed 03 June 2020 38268 ( +87) 268266 ( +664) 1630 ( +43)
Thu 04 June 2020 38347 ( +79) 268876 ( +611) 1675 ( +44)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 103776 (+967) 1770165 (+24146) 416461 (+10015)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 102612 ( +516) 1746148 ( +11718) 430287 ( +10792)
Mon 01 June 2020 103086 ( +474) 1757112 ( +10964) 441099 ( +10812)
Tue 02 June 2020 103520 ( +434) 1767355 ( +10243) 451924 ( +10825)
Wed 03 June 2020 103917 ( +398) 1776911 ( +9555) 462755 ( +10831)
Thu 04 June 2020 104281 ( +364) 1785812 ( +8901) 473584 ( +10829)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 28774 (+57) 188752 (+1829) 68386 (+465)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 28703 ( +31) 181289 ( +28) 67379 ( +233)
Mon 01 June 2020 28730 ( +28) 181313 ( +24) 67594 ( +215)
Tue 02 June 2020 28755 ( +25) 181335 ( +21) 67792 ( +198)
Wed 03 June 2020 28778 ( +22) 181354 ( +19) 67974 ( +182)
Thu 04 June 2020 28798 ( +20) 181371 ( +17) 68142 ( +167)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 8530 (+26) 183189 (+267) 164908 (+663)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 8421 ( +12) 180940 ( +133) 162865 ( +264)
Mon 01 June 2020 8432 ( +11) 181061 ( +121) 163102 ( +237)
Tue 02 June 2020 8442 ( +10) 181172 ( +111) 163314 ( +213)
Wed 03 June 2020 8451 ( +9) 181272 ( +101) 163505 ( +191)
Thu 04 June 2020 8459 ( +8) 181364 ( +91) 163677 ( +171)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 5970 (+20) 46460 (+132) 178 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 5882 ( +5) 45317 ( +27) 236 ( +7)
Mon 01 June 2020 5886 ( +5) 45342 ( +25) 244 ( +7)
Tue 02 June 2020 5891 ( +4) 45364 ( +22) 252 ( +8)
Wed 03 June 2020 5894 ( +4) 45384 ( +20) 260 ( +8)
Thu 04 June 2020 5898 ( +3) 45402 ( +18) 268 ( +8)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 9453 (+23) 58186 (+125) 15769 (+87)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 9226 ( +3) 56067 ( +29) 15558 ( +35)
Mon 01 June 2020 9229 ( +3) 56094 ( +26) 15589 ( +31)
Tue 02 June 2020 9231 ( +3) 56117 ( +24) 15617 ( +28)
Wed 03 June 2020 9233 ( +2) 56139 ( +21) 15643 ( +26)
Thu 04 June 2020 9235 ( +2) 56158 ( +19) 15667 ( +23)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 4395 (+45) 37113 (+637) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 4348 ( +33) 36887 ( +399) 5034 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4380 ( +31) 37270 ( +383) 5034 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4409 ( +29) 37637 ( +367) 5034 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4436 ( +27) 37987 ( +351) 5034 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4461 ( +25) 38322 ( +335) 5034 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 1061 (+10) 23571 (+416) 11016 (+324)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 1057 ( +7) 23675 ( +297) 10694 ( +149)
Mon 01 June 2020 1063 ( +6) 23959 ( +285) 10833 ( +139)
Tue 02 June 2020 1069 ( +6) 24232 ( +272) 10963 ( +130)
Wed 03 June 2020 1075 ( +6) 24492 ( +260) 11084 ( +121)
Thu 04 June 2020 1081 ( +6) 24739 ( +248) 11195 ( +112)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 1919 (+0) 30845 (+17) 28400 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 1906 ( +1) 30575 ( +2) 28348 ( +36)
Mon 01 June 2020 1907 ( +0) 30577 ( +2) 28380 ( +33)
Tue 02 June 2020 1907 ( +0) 30579 ( +2) 28411 ( +30)
Wed 03 June 2020 1908 ( +0) 30581 ( +2) 28438 ( +28)
Thu 04 June 2020 1908 ( +0) 30582 ( +1) 28464 ( +26)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 28834 (+956) 498440 (+33274) 200892 (+11416)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 29283 ( +876) 505864 ( +21794) 218823 ( +12661)
Mon 01 June 2020 30139 ( +856) 527956 ( +22092) 232261 ( +13438)
Tue 02 June 2020 30973 ( +834) 550291 ( +22335) 246524 ( +14263)
Wed 03 June 2020 31784 ( +810) 572813 ( +22522) 261663 ( +15139)
Thu 04 June 2020 32569 ( +785) 595463 ( +22650) 277732 ( +16069)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 7734 (+57) 148950 (+2282) 116827 (+1896)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 31 May 2020 7610 ( +25) 150357 ( +1967) 118319 ( +1699)
Mon 01 June 2020 7634 ( +24) 152261 ( +1904) 119961 ( +1643)
Tue 02 June 2020 7657 ( +22) 154096 ( +1835) 121540 ( +1579)
Wed 03 June 2020 7678 ( +21) 155858 ( +1762) 123047 ( +1507)
Thu 04 June 2020 7697 ( +20) 157545 ( +1687) 124477 ( +1430)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.